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The UK leaving the EU without a deal would be a major disruption, causing business insolvencies to be higher in the UK and EU27.

The USMCA has finally been signed on November 30, easing short-term uncertainty surrounding North American trade.

The main potential downside risk for the industry is a deterioration in orders from main buyer industries, especially from the automotive sector.

Both payment delays and insolvencies could increase in 2019, especially if price and margin pressures rise and activity in the construction sector slows.

Competitiveness of the steel and metals industry remains negatively impacted by power costs, which are about 30%-50% higher than in France or Germany.

Despite ongoing price pressure the general outlook for the Dutch steel/metals sector is positive, and the impact of the US import tariffs is very limited.

Payment delays or rescheduling schemes are currently on an upward trend, as producers are facing cash pressure due to heavier working capital requirements.

Higher margin pressure as demand from the automotive sector is expected to decrease in the coming months, while demand from construction remains sluggish.

The number and amount of protracted payments and insolvencies remains high, and many private-owned steel and metals producers face serious troubles.

Payment delays and insolvencies will probably increase until the new USMCA trade agreement is ratified and the US import tariff issue is resolved.

Despite the comprehensive safeguarding measures imposed by the EU, the risk of declining steel prices as a result of additional steel inflow remains.

EU safeguarding measures against steel imports could become an issue if the EU and the UK fail to reach an agreement on the post Brexit trade relationship.

Mid-level producers, smaller steel and metals service centres have started to feel cash flow and profit margin pressure after the imposition of tariffs.

Southeast Asia is facing headwinds in the face of the US-China trade war and increased global market volatility, but strong domestic policymaking and economic fundamentals should mitigate risks.

Despite ongoing growth, there are challenges ahead, as profit margins of businesses decreased in 2017 and H1 of 2018 due to sharply increased input costs.

Many producers are under pressure to either expand/grow or refuse orders, while difficulties in hiring skilled staff impacts further business expansion.

As in previous years, competition remains strong in the domestic market, mainly among small and medium-sized machinery companies depending on construction.

A modest insolvency increase is expected in 2019, with businesses related to oil and gas exploration, construction and agricultural markets mainly exposed.

The demand situation for Belgian machinery businesses is generally positive, but remains affected by difficulties in some major buyer industries.

There is pressure on the profits of turbine manufacturers and their suppliers along the value chain, and further consolidation seems to be likely.